Change is constant. It can be tricky to navigate, but we usually manage alright. However, the changes of the past five months have had a marked intensity and variety which has given me pause. The constant chaos we’ve collectively experienced as a world has shocked our sense of normalcy and thrown us into a state of confusion.
“What are you seeing out there? What should we be doing?” These questions have been tough for me to address, despite having a perspective from directly engaging in deep discussions with hundreds of business and charity leaders across the country. The situation seemed to change rapidly with each passing day, and patterns I’d theorized were not reliably holding up when applied to different situations.
I feel an obligation to those who trust me as their advisor to develop better clarity of thought on what is happening; to make space for this reflection, I committed a full weekend that included a digital detox. What are the meaningful implications for our future? This is the question I am exploring further.
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What’s been informing my perspective
As the world turned upside down, my focuses shifted to crisis response banking work, adapting to pandemic realities, managing a home renovation, and launching/hosting executive roundtables nationally.
It’s been thought-provoking to directly engage with hundreds of people who serve in leading commercial enterprise, scientific and technological research, industry associations, not for profits, and government agencies across the country. It has not been easy for anybody to maintain the focus and mental resilience through this period; most of us have had to dig deep in order to show up, work hard, have a good attitude, and try to deliver meaningful outcomes, whether in our personal lives or in business.
This has been a tragic time for many, and this has touched close to home. It pains me greatly that there is not more compassion even when faced with this stark reminder of our fragility, as humans and as a society.
I am grateful that these five months have provided the opportunity for more time than ever before with my wife, in nature, to read and write, and to focus on my wellness. The other side of the coin is that these five months have been a period where I’ve had less time than ever before with cherished family, friends, and communities.
What do I think is going on?
I’ve always found it useful to think across multiple domains in order to identify the trends that could reliably provide an outlook into what the future holds.
As I worked through this exercise, it dawned on me that the 20+ major trends I identified would not surprise any seasoned professional (e.g. generational transfer, digitization, borderless world, supply/demand diversification - more on these in another entry). Rather, the abrupt change in global circumstances became a forced stress test on all of the systems individuals and organizations had in place.
Chaos ensued, and everybody is forced to adapt. Some have been able to thrive, while others have struggled - in either case, sometimes by luck. What is certain is that one should not cling to the hope of things returning to their pre-pandemic state; a re-calibrated approach is a must.
Change can be tough, especially if we have not anticipated and actively prepared for them. With so much change happening all at once and without an oracle to provide guidance, people are feeling unsettled on some level. With many questions looming unanswered and with no end in sight, people are feeling disoriented and becoming fatigued.
This is the current reality we have transitioned to and will be living in, and it is one we are well served to accept.
thematic highlights
The headliner is - no surprise - the world being rocked by the COVID-19 pandemic, an infectious disease of unprecedented proportions for any person alive. Many trends have accelerated to the forefront as a result of this, including those of health & safety, more disciplined financial management, increased focus on digitization, and the changing nature of work.
Baby boomers are retiring, and are likely now push for an accelerated timeline. While seemingly innocuous, I see a tremendous amount at stake with this. This is the generation with a high propensity to hoard and save, has amassed substantial wealth, and has defined the world order in their lifetime. This will be the largest transfer of wealth in history. It is of marked importance to highlight that the majority of this wealth is made up of private companies, most of which are small and medium businesses. The transition of these businesses and of positions of authority will be chaotic; I think the world will undergo radical change for the next 10-20 years before reaching a state of stability again.
Finally, one trend that is less obvious and more abstract is a notable shift in the balance of power. Authoritarian regimes are coming into power all over the world, and there will be great cost to individual personal freedoms and the global stability most have known for their entire lives. Serious implications to this one.
Parting Thoughts
There is great inefficiency in times of change, the inflection of change is upon us, and time is on our side for those who act. Herein lies tremendous opportunity for those savvy enough and well positioned to take advantage.
Let’s set aside our idea of how things have been or should be, and let’s move from inaction to conscious action.
Our best bet is to baseline our current situation, assess which trends are relevant to us, they will affect us, what actions we can set to prepare for them, and put in the work to lead changes while we can to get ahead of them.
Years into the future, this will have passed. How will you have navigated these changing times?
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tl;dr
The current reality is that everybody is feeling unsettled and fatigued;
Significant recent changes happened at breakneck speeds, most people weren’t ready, and society hasn’t had time to adjust;
Even more rapid and significant change is coming, and tremendous opportunities await those with the readiness to take advantage.
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Photo by Aron Visuals on Unsplash